![]() We came into the tournament with just a one-point difference in rating, which would suggest some value on Gonzaga here. Pick: Florida Atlantic (+5.5) (3) Gonzaga vs. ![]() Tennessee is similar athletically to Memphis, and the Owls handled that well enough to win, so I expect they'll have a chance to win late in New York. Our pre-tournament ratings for each side made Florida Atlantic just a 1-point underdog, and even if you give the Vols the benefit of the doubt for overcoming Zakai Zeigler's injury, I can't get to a 5.5-point spread on a neutral court. Now we reach a point where we don't want to be backing Rick Barnes as a decent-sized favorite with the Final Four looming against a team not far off in ability. The Volunteers would never be underdogs to the Blue Devils at any point in the season, so their second-round win was an upset in name only. Hopeful Blue Devils backers could make an argument for it beforehand, but fundamentally, the -3 point spread in Tennessee-Duke was wrong. Pick: Connecticut (-3.5) (9) Florida Atlantic vs. The Huskies' size isn't something that the Razorbacks are necessarily equipped for, as they don't have the ability on offense to pull the UConn big men away from the basket with big-bodied shooters, and their dribble penetration is more likely to be stymied at the rim than usual. However, shouldn't UConn get a similar treatment for comfortably covering both of its games as a bigger favorite? 1 seed Kansas, which is reason enough to raise their rating. That suggests an appropriate point spread of 4.5 for the Huskies. As listed in our South Region preview, we have UConn rated at 41 and Arkansas at 36.5. The first move on this game was down from UConn -4 to -3.5, but that's not a move I agree with. That's especially true if you've already bet on them at 100-1 to win the whole thing and are hoping they advance to the regional final on the strength of a senior core that's stepped up the way we hoped they might last week. That shouldn't be a surprise, given the Wildcats were 3-point underdogs against Kentucky on Sunday.Įven if I would lean toward Michigan State, this line should be a pick'em, meaning there's no value in betting on the Spartans. So, of course, Michigan State is attracting money, pulling it to being a favorite. Meanwhile, Kansas State is the secondary character in its own state with a first-year head coach. The Spartans are the bigger brand, with more tournament history and a coach who's the star of the "January, February, Izzo, April" meme. ![]() No matter what futures ticket you have, it will color how you bet the Sweet 16, with the most reasonable result being a stay away from betting the spread or moneyline.
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